Coalition Map

The outgoing government (25th Knesset, dissolved July 17, 2026)

Netanyahu’s bloc won 64 seats in the 2022 election:

• Likud — 32
• Religious Zionism (then running jointly with Otzma Yehudit) — 14
• Shas — 11
• United Torah Judaism — 7

Over the term, this bloc later split into separate Likud / Religious Zionism / Otzma Yehudit / Noam factions, plus the 2025 addition of New Hope (merged into Likud).

During 2025, the Haredi parties broke with the government over the military draft-exemption dispute:

• UTJ (7 seats) formally quit the coalition in July 2025, cutting the working majority to 61.
• Shas (11 seats) resigned its ministerial posts around the same time while describing itself as remaining “in the coalition” without bringing the government down — a characterization that sources genuinely dispute (see Sources & Contested Points).

Netanyahu governed his final year with a bare or effectively lost majority, leaning on Likud, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and New Hope, plus (nominally) Shas, and on opposition abstentions for security-related votes. A single, clean “coalition X seats vs. opposition Y seats” figure at the exact moment of dissolution could not be confirmed — the two firmest anchor points are the 64-seat 2022 starting bloc and its drop to 61 after UTJ’s July 2025 departure.

Where the polling stands (as of mid-August 2026)

Recent surveys converge on a two-bloc deadlock, with a third bloc that hasn’t yet cleared the threshold:

Bloc	Approx. seats
Netanyahu bloc (Likud, Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism)	~48–52
“Change” / anti-Netanyahu bloc (Yashar, Together, The Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu)	~56–59
Arab parties (Hadash-Ta’al, Ra’am)	~10
Third bloc (Unity, Zionist Home–Reservists, Israel First)	below threshold, individually

Neither Jewish bloc reaches the 61-seat majority on its own without either the Arab parties (whom most Jewish-party leaders in both blocs currently rule out governing with) or a currently-unformed cross-bloc arrangement.

One Kan poll put the full anti-Netanyahu opposition (including Arab parties) at 68 seats, but only 58 if opposition leaders hold to their stated refusal to include Arab parties — illustrating how much the final number depends on political choices, not just vote totals.

Three scenarios analysts are discussing

1. A narrow Netanyahu right-religious government — requires Netanyahu to reunite the Haredi parties and the far right (Smotrich + Ben Gvir) and clear 61 seats without the “third bloc.” Smotrich has publicly rejected re-merging with Ben Gvir for 2026, saying Religious Zionism “can and should run on its own” — recent coverage frames a reunion as currently unlikely, not a neutral toss-up, though positions have shifted before as the list deadline approaches.
2. A “change” government led by Eisenkot or Bennett — would likely require either outside support/abstention from Arab parties (which the leading change-bloc figures currently reject) or picking up enough third-bloc or defector seats to reach 61 among explicitly “Zionist” parties.
3. A broad “Zionist unity government” excluding both the Haredi parties and Arab parties — the outcome the third-bloc parties (Unity, Zionist Home–Reservists, Israel First) are explicitly campaigning for, betting that neither major bloc can govern alone.

Based on the polling above, continued deadlock reads as the most likely near-term outcome — that’s this site’s own read of the numbers, not a claim that named analysts have converged on it, and it’s a read that could shift before the vote. The eventual government will be shaped heavily by (a) whether Smotrich and Ben Gvir reunite their lists (currently looking unlikely — see scenario 1), (b) whether any third-bloc party clears the threshold or merges into one that does, and (c) whether change-bloc leaders soften their refusal to accept Arab-party support.

Reading this map responsibly

• Every number on this page is a snapshot with a margin of error of roughly ±4 seats, not a forecast.
• Coalition scenarios depend as much on political red lines leaders have stated (e.g., “I won’t sit with X”) as on raw seat totals — and those red lines can and do shift after elections.
• The two milestones that will most change this picture: the September 9, 2026 candidate-list submission deadline (which locks in mergers/splits) and election day, October 27, 2026 itself.

See Sources & Contested Points for pollster-by-pollster caveats.