Coalition Map

The outgoing government (25th Knesset, dissolved July 17, 2026)

Netanyahu’s bloc won 64 seats in the 2022 election:

• Likud — 32
• Religious Zionism (then running jointly with Otzma Yehudit) — 14
• Shas — 11
• United Torah Judaism — 7

Over the term, this bloc later split into separate Likud / Religious Zionism / Otzma Yehudit / Noam factions, plus the 2025 addition of New Hope (merged into Likud).

During 2025, the Haredi parties broke with the government over the military draft-exemption dispute:

• UTJ (7 seats) formally quit the coalition in July 2025, cutting the working majority to 61.
• Shas (11 seats) resigned its ministerial posts around the same time while describing itself as remaining “in the coalition” without bringing the government down — a characterization that sources genuinely dispute (see Sources & Contested Points).

Netanyahu governed his final year with a bare or effectively lost majority, leaning on Likud, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and New Hope, plus (nominally) Shas, and on opposition abstentions for security-related votes. A single, clean “coalition X seats vs. opposition Y seats” figure at the exact moment of dissolution could not be confirmed — the two firmest anchor points are the 64-seat 2022 starting bloc and its drop to 61 after UTJ’s July 2025 departure.

Where the polling stands (as of mid-August 2026)

Recent surveys converge on a two-bloc deadlock, with a third bloc that hasn’t yet cleared the threshold:

Bloc	Approx. seats
Netanyahu bloc (Likud, Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism)	~48–52
“Change” / anti-Netanyahu bloc (Yashar, Together, The Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu)	~56–59
Arab parties (Hadash-Ta’al, Ra’am)	~10
Third bloc (Unity, Zionist Home–Reservists, Israel First)	below threshold, individually

Neither Jewish bloc reaches the 61-seat majority on its own without either the Arab parties (whom most Jewish-party leaders in both blocs currently rule out governing with) or a currently-unformed cross-bloc arrangement.

One Kan poll put the full anti-Netanyahu opposition (including Arab parties) at 68 seats, but only 58 if opposition leaders hold to their stated refusal to include Arab parties — illustrating how much the final number depends on political choices, not just vote totals.

Three scenarios analysts are discussing

1. A narrow Netanyahu right-religious government — requires Netanyahu to reunite the Haredi parties and the far right (Smotrich + Ben Gvir) and clear 61 seats without the “third bloc.”
2. A “change” government led by Eisenkot or Bennett — would likely require either outside support/abstention from Arab parties (which the leading change-bloc figures currently reject) or picking up enough third-bloc or defector seats to reach 61 among explicitly “Zionist” parties.
3. A broad “Zionist unity government” excluding both the Haredi parties and Arab parties — the outcome the third-bloc parties (Unity, Zionist Home–Reservists, Israel First) are explicitly campaigning for, betting that neither major bloc can govern alone.

As of mid-August 2026, most analysts treat continued deadlock as the base-case outcome, with the eventual government shaped heavily by (a) whether Smotrich and Ben Gvir reunite their lists, (b) whether any third-bloc party clears the threshold or merges into one that does, and (c) whether change-bloc leaders soften their refusal to accept Arab-party support.

Reading this map responsibly

• Every number on this page is a snapshot with a margin of error of roughly ±4 seats, not a forecast.
• Coalition scenarios depend as much on political red lines leaders have stated (e.g., “I won’t sit with X”) as on raw seat totals — and those red lines can and do shift after elections.
• The two milestones that will most change this picture: the September 9, 2026 candidate-list submission deadline (which locks in mergers/splits) and election day, October 27, 2026 itself.

See Sources & Contested Points for pollster-by-pollster caveats.